How the Global Economy would Turn around in the Next Three Years
Western Europe
Germany2012: 1.0 percent
2013: 0.6 percent
2014: 0.5 percent
2015: 0.7 percent
Citi says that the strong domestic demand may offset weakness in its exports. If the domestic demand gets solid, it may keep the country out of recession.
France
2012: -0.1 percent
2013: -0.2 percent
2014: 0.9 percent
2015: 1.2 percent
France, according to the Buiter’s report, will probably miss deficit targets in the coming years. Growth will fall below expectations.
Italy
2012: -2.5 percent
2013: -2.1 percent
2014: -0.2 percent
2015: 0.4 percent
The report by Citi bank expects that the spending cuts of Italy slow to materialize and it says that unemployment will continue to raise financial issues in the country. Jurgen Michels says that weak consumption and high unemployment rates will remain as obstacle for the financial growth in the country and it is more likely to miss the fiscal deficit targets.
The Netherlands
2012: -0.7 percent
2013: -0.8 percent
2014: 0.8 percent
2015: 1.0 percent
Jurgen Michels says that the Netherlands will see budget deficits rise as leaders push back on austerity. The political leaders there will probably try to cite “exceptional circumstances” to stretch the fiscal adjustment, which will surely raise the deficits.
The United Kingdom
2012: -0.5 percent
2013: 0.3 percent
2014: 1.0 percent
2015: 1.3 percent
According to Michael Saunders, the retail sales in the country are weak and credit remains tight as well. Thus he is tempted to cut the forecast for the United Kingdom. Industrial production, exports etc. are also dull. Furthermore, debt level remains high.
Switzerland
2012: 1.2 percent
2013: 1.0 percent
2014: 0.9 percent
2015: 0.9 percent
Citi group’s report says that Switzerland is expected to experience long-term ultra-low interest rates. Saunders says that the strong Swiss Franc has been bad for exports, while low interest rates are helping consumer spending and the inflation rates shows a negative.
