Economic Survey 2023: President Droupadi Murmu discusses the joint session of Parliament
Among sectors in private listed space, investments undertaken by companies in the first half of FY 2022-23 is higher than what it was in first half of FY 2021-22, says CEA
Because of the government's health insurance programme, out of pocket health expenditure for families has reduced from 66% to 48%, says CEA
There was talk of India having prematurely deindustrialised. I would say India had not industrialised enough. - Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran
The first tranche of $1 billion sovereign green bond was just auctioned. We got a better yield. We were able to sell the green bond at 6 basis points lower than the conventional borrowing cost. There will be one more coming in the current financial year, says CEA
In the first decade, capital expenditure led to job creation and that is a phase that India is looking towards now as well, says CEA
As private sector investment kicks in, and construction sector comes back to life with rural migrants getting back to urban employment opportunities, the employment scenario will pick up as it did in the first half of the decade, says CEA
Chief Economic Adviser says, the digital infrastructure can help the hitherto excluded sections get a fair shot at accessing national and international markets.
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says, there is a lot of justified optimism about India's digital public infrastructure.
It's not just that quality of government expenditure has improved in recent years, but the government has also become more transparent about it's numbers, asserts CEA
Recovery of economy is complete; non-banking and corporate sectors now have healthy balance sheets, hence, we don't have to speak of pandemic recovery anymore, we have to look ahead to the next phase, says CEA
Reforms of the last eight years mean India will perform better in this decade. - Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran
CEA says, more than 7 lakh cases have been resolved even before entering the IBC process. This isn't reflected in the data.
India's economy is poised to do better in remainder of this decade, says CEA
IMF pegged 6.8% economic growth in FY23, 6.1% for FY24 and at 6.8% for FY25 this morning; our economic survey this year is a clear reflection of that, -CEA Nageswaran
Banking, non-banking, and corporate sectors have good balance sheets after a long time - - CEA Anantha Nageswaram
India's GDP growth is going to do better in the remainder of the decade, says Chief economic advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaram
Capex revival is on the cards
With well-capitalised banks ready and willing to lend and corporates financially stronger and willing to borrow, the credit-investment cycle is poised for an upturn in the third decade” Pandemic interrupted the investment cycle as deleveraging was completed by the end of 2018. Core debt of pvt sector as share of GDP down to 87.8 percent in June 2022 quarter, from 100.7 percent in March 2021 quarter
The Survey points to sharp rise in commodity prices due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict; prices yet to reach pre-conflict levels. Inflation stays high, driven by high food and energy prices.
Economic Survey on Debt to GDP ratio
The General Government Debt to GDP ratio increased from 75.7 per cent of end-March 2020 to 89.6 per cent at the end of the pandemic year FY21. It is estimated to decline to 84.5 per cent of GDP by end-March 2022. The emphasis on capex-led growth will enable India to keep the growth-interest rate differential positive. A positive growth-interest rate differential keeps the debt levels sustainable.
Self Help Groups and their contribution
The Economic Survey 2022-23 has underlined the Self Help Group (SHG) women's contribution in crisis management during COVID. The Survey observes that the production of masks by SHGs has been a noteworthy contribution, enabling access to and use of masks by communities in remote rural areas and providing vital protection against the Covid-19 virus. As on 4 January 2023, more than 16.9 crore masks were produced by SHGs under DAY-NRLM.
What's driving the rebound in consumption
The rebound in consumption has also been supported by the release of “pent-up” demand, a phenomenon not again unique to India but nonetheless exhibiting a local phenomenon influenced by a rise in the share of consumption in disposable income. Since the share of consumption in disposable income is high in India, a pandemic-induced suppression of consumption built up that much greater recoil force. Hence, the consumption rebound may have lasting power.
Agriculture sector remains buoyant
Economic Survey 2022-23 says that India’s agriculture sector has been witnessing robust growth with an average annual growth rate of 4.6$ over the last six years. The Survey attributes the sector’s growth and buoyancy to the “measures taken by the government to augment crop and livestock productivity, ensure certainty of returns to the farmers through price support (Minimum Support Price), promote crop diversification” and, focused interventions to “enhance credit availability, facilitate mechanisation and boost horticulture and organic farming”. The Survey observes that these interventions are in line with the recommendations of the Committee on Doubling of Farmers’ Income.
Thrust on rural development
Economic Survey 2023 notes that 65% (2021 data) of the country’s population lives in the rural areas and 47 per cent of the population is dependent on agriculture for livelihood. Thus, the focus of the government on rural development is imperative. The Government’s emphasis has been on improving the quality of life in rural areas to ensure more equitable and inclusive development. The aim of engagement of the government in the rural economy has been “transforming lives and livelihoods through proactive socio-economic inclusion, integration, and empowerment of rural India.”
What will drive India's growth?
Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, PM Gati Shakti, National Logistics Policy, expansion of public digital platform, capital investment cycle and credit disbursal will drive India's economic growth.
Economic Survey 2023 has said that the CPI inflation did not "creep too far above" the RBI's tolerance range, in comparison to several world economies.
Confidence on forex reserves
The Economic Survey 2023 is confident that India has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to finance its Current Account Deficit (CAD) and intervene in forex market to manage rupee volatility.
On steel production
The country is now a global force in steel production and the 2nd largest crude steel producer in the world. The steel sector’s performance in the current fiscal year has been robust, with cumulative production and consumption of finished steel at 88 MT and 86 MT, respectively.
On power sector
The reforms being undertaken in energy and power sector will help fast-track India's progress in the next 25 years. Government, along with private sector, has progressively worked towards increasing the share of renewables. This will ensure a gradual but calibrated energy transition, meeting the country’s sustainability targets and giving primacy to its national developmental requirements.
Factors driving economic growth
According to Economic Survey 2023, the GDP growth will be driven by higher capital expenditure, private consumption, credit growth to small businesses, strengthening corporate balance sheet and return of migrant workers to cities.
India will continue to be fastest growing economy
Economic Survey 2023 is confident that despite the GDP growth slowing down in financial year 2023-24, India will continue to be fastest growing economy in the world.
Fifth largest economy
Economic Survey 2023 has highlighted that India is the fifth largest economy in terms of the exchange rate and the third largest in terms of purchasing power parity.
India has "nearly" recouped
Economic Survey 2023 has pointed out that the Indian economy has nearly "recouped" what was lost. It has "renewed" what had paused, and "renerengised" what had slowed during the pandemic and since the conflict in Europe.
Slowing world growth, shrinking global trade led to loss of export stimulus in 2nd half of current year, says Economic Survey.
11% nominal GDP growth
Economic Survey 2023 expects that the Gross Domestic Product in nominal terms will grow at 11% in the next financial year.
FY23 real GDP growth seen at 7%
Economic Survey 2023 expected the Indian economy to grow at around 7% in the ongoing financial year 2023-24.
CAD & Rupee worries
Economic Survey 2023 has cautioned that the Indian rupee may come under pressure if the Current Account Deficit (CAD) continues to widen.
India's growth story intact
Economic Survey 2023 is confident that India's growth story is driven by strong fundamentals. This comes as a strong assurance amidst global headwinds.
India's recovery from pandemic was relatively quick; growth to be supported by domestic demand, pick up in capital investment, says Eco Survey.
India sees GDP growth slowing to 6%-6.8% in 2023/24
- India on Tuesday forecast its economy will grow 6% to 6.8% in the next financial year starting April 1, down from 7% projected for the current year.
- The government's annual Economic Survey report said its baseline scenario for growth for 2023/24 was 6.5%, with nominal growth, which accounts for inflation, forecast at 11%.
- Gross domestic product is expected to grow 6.5% in the fiscal year starting April, compared with the 7% expansion estimated for the current year.
All eyes on Sitharaman
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Economic Survey 2023 shortly.
Will India be an outlier?
Sachchidanand Shukla, Chief Economist at Mahindra Group told TOI that India will be an oasis of hope in the world. Despite global headwinds, the India growth story is strong enough to tide over the global uncertainties, he said.
India's global relations with other countries are at their best now
- Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar
To be tabled soon
- The Economic Survey 2023 is expected to be tabled soon in the Parliament. Providing direction to the Union Budget 2023, the Economic Survey is a crucial statement on the economic growth path in the ongoing fiscal year. Policy suggestions on key economic issues also form part of the Economic Survey every year.
Watch out for Chief Economic Advisor's press conference
Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran will be addressing a press conference live at 2PM to explain the findings of the Economic Survey 2023, its theme and the forecast in detail.
Economic Survey 2023 Live: Main areas of focus
- State of the Economy
- Fiscal Developments
- External Sector
- Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation
- Prices and Inflation
- Sustainable Development and Climate Change
- Agriculture and Food Management
- Industry and Infrastructure
- Social Infrastructure and Employment
- Tracking Development through Satellite Images and Cartography
To provide better facilities to border villages, my government has started work on 'Vibrant Villages Programme.' For national security, unprecedented infrastructure has been created in border areas. Development in these areas is gaining momentum
- President Droupadi Murmu
President Murmu speaks
- Due to new initiatives by govt, India's defence exports have increased six times.
- Today India's youth are showing the power of their innovation to the world.
- Government has chosen the path of pushing development.
- India is becoming a high tech hub for knowledge.
- Digital India, 5G technology are receiving recognition the world over.
- India is pushing yoga and ayurveda at the same time.
How many chapters would be there in the Survey?
The Economic Survey is usually divided into several chapters that review the state of various important sectors in economy in the ongoing financial year. Though, India is expected to slow down amidst global threat of recession, most global institutions like the World Bank, IMF, OECD expect the Indian economy to continue being among the fastest growing.
President Murmu hails 'Aspirational districts' program
The 'Aspirational districts' program is now being repeated at the block level, for which, 500 blocks have been identified in the country. The 'Vibrant villages' program to develop villages in border areas has also been introduced, says President Murmu.
With complete transparency, more than Rs 27 lakh crores have been provided to crores of people. A World Bank report states that with such schemes and systems India was able to save crores of people from dropping below the poverty line during COVID
- President Murmu
India wary of global headwinds
Even though India's growth has been projected to be the fastest and Indian economy has been termed as a "bright spot" due to the resilience it has shown amidst a global crisis, the pace of rise in GDP is expected to slowdown significantly. According to a survey conducted by TOI and Deloitte India, the biggest economic uncertainty that faces businesses today is the global slowdown.
President Murmu speaks
- Due to the decisions taken my govt in the national interest, India is in a better position as compared to other countries
- Govt has passed legislation to tackle fugitive economic offenders.
- Govt e-marketplace has seen transactions worth over Rs 3 lakh crore.
- We praise people who support us to fight corruption.
- Taxpayers are getting refunds within days of filing IT returns.
- GST, Ayushman Bharat are boon for India.
- Centre working for women empowerment.
- 11 crore small farmers are my government's priority.
- 36,000 Adivasi families have been covered under Adivasi Ekta Mission.
- Govt has spent more than Rs 2.5 crore under PM Kissan Scheme.
Ayushmaan Bharat scheme has resulted in Rs 80,000 cr of savings for the poor. Govt has spent Rs 3.5 lakh crore on the free food program.
- President Murmu
My government has worked for every section of society without any discrimination. As a result of the efforts of my government in the last few years, many basic facilities have either reached 100% population or are very close to that target, says President Murmu
Today, India's self-confidence is at its highest and the world is looking at her from a different perspective. India is providing solutions to the world
- President Droupadi Murmu to joint session of Parliament
Numbers that matter
The Reserve Bank of India has forecast 6.8% growth in FY23 while the World Bank has pegged it at 6.9%. Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth, without adjusting for inflation, is seen at 15.4% in FY23, sharply higher than the 11.1% assumed in the budget. India’s GDP had grown 8.7% in FY22, boosted by the pandemic-induced low base of the preceding FY21 fiscal year.
We need to ensure India is self-reliant where there is no poverty, says President Murmu.
This 25-year period of Amrit kaal marks the golden century of independence and the creation of a developed India. These 25 years are about fulfilling our duties for all of us and for every citizen of the country
- President Droupadi Murmu
President Droupadi Murmu addresses the joint session of Parliament
By 2047, we have to build a nation that will be connected to the pride of the past and which will have all the golden chapters of modernity. We have to build an India that will be 'aatmanirbhar' and capable to fulfill its humanitarian duties, says President Murmu
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