WASHINGTON: The U.S. Energy Department says much of the projected 58 percent growth in worldwide consumption of commercial energy is expected to occur in rapidly industrialising developing countries such as India, China and South Korea. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), an independent statistical agency in the department, lowered "substantially" its projection for a rise in energy demand in South America as a result of political and economic problems in the region last year. The EIA Thursday released its International Energy Outlook 2003, which covers the period between 2001 and 2025. With the use of natural gas projected to grow nearly 100 percent over that time, the natural gas share of total energy consumption is expected to increase by five percentage points to 28 percent. By comparison, consumption of oil, the dominant fuel type, is forecast to increase by 55 percent and its share of the energy mix to remain at 38 percent, says EIA. The EIA also highlighted the expected decline in the role of nuclear power, continued reliance on coal as an important source for electricity generation, projected growth in renewable energy use, and continued rise of carbon dioxide emissions coming from the combustion of fossil fuels. It says nuclear power accounted for 19 percent of the world's total electricity supply in 2001. It projects a drop in the nuclear share of electricity, to 12 percent in 2025, as the current trend away from nuclear power in most countries is expected to continue. Despite its declining share of global electricity production, it, however, says nuclear power will continue to be a significant source of electricity. Some countries, particularly in Asia, are expected to continue to build new nuclear units, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea projected to add a combined 45 gigawatts between 2001 and 2025. The document projects a substantial decline in coal use for Western and Eastern Europe, and the former Soviet Union, where natural gas is increasingly being used for electricity generation. However, large increases are projected for developing Asia, with China and India combined accounting for 75 percent of the world's increment in coal use over the forecast.
Source: IANS