Indian Rupee Could Touch 70 against U.S. Dollar In A Month Or So: Deutsche Bank


Meanwhile, the government has taken a slew of measures in recent months to prevent this vicious cycle, and though some of these measures like enhanced provision for FDI are likely to serve India well in the long term, but a number of measures have also suggested "haphazard decision-making," it said.

The research note further added that episodes of currency crisis also cause a range of negative spillovers, the most crucial of which is the health of the financial sector as rupee depreciation and rising cost of financing will put Indian borrowers under further stress.

According to Deutsche Bank, considering such risks (pushing up bad loans sharply, damaging the balance sheet of corporations and banks), "ratings agencies may be nudged toward a downgrade, although conditions have to be weak for another quarter or two before that were to transpire."

To prevent the crisis from deepening, Indian authorities need to gear up for recapitalising banks and supporting corporate refinancing, it said.

"Given the weak state of the fiscal position, this may entail a major rethink of the expenditure programme (especially plan spending), accelerated sales of state-owned assets, and a major external bond issuance with a credible set of macro-fiscal-structural policies underlying the programme," the report added.

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Source: PTI