Wheat:

Last year production of wheat remain low, which eventually pushed its price up by 32 per cent to 1,560 quintal between January 2 and December 6. The price rise is likely to continue in 2013 on account of tight supply in global markets.

According to the International Grains Council, production of wheat may fall for 2012-13 by one million tonne (mt) to 654 mt. The year ending stock is also estimated to remain low as 173 metric ton as against 196 metric ton in the 2011-12 marketing year. This year, in India wheat has been sown over 4.96 mllion hectares, 2.84 per cent less than last year.

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Market analysts say supply of wheat in the global scenario has fallen due to drought in the Black Sea region, dry weather in Australia's producing regions and frost strike in Argentina. In India, late rainfall, shortfall in production, heavy government buying and exports pushed up prices.

CP Krishnan, whole-time director, Geojit Comtrade, says, "Dry weather in the US and drought in the Black Sea region may boost exports from India later. Wheat could trade in the range of 1,400-1,900 a quintal next year." Records show India has exported over three million tonnes wheat since September 2011.

Ashok Mittal, CEO, Emkay Commotrade, says, "Technical charts are positive for the medium term with a price outlook of 1,850 per quintal. Corrective declines can't be ruled out towards 1,400-1,450 a quintal, where buying interest could emerge."

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