3 Big Fears for Indian Stock Investors


The third issue is related to the rupee. Forward premiums on the rupee have extended, and the currency seems to be declining. From the start of the year, globally, we have been in a risk-on situation and India has received over $14 billion in financial pours. This quarter is also seasonally the best from a current-account-deficit outlook.

Regardless of the flows, the rupee-dollar exchange rates have once again destabilized, to near 51. If we go back to a risk-off situation, or the view build that the rupee is weak, the currency could weaken further. In a weakening rupee situation, investors and companies both take a hit. With a current account deficit of 3.8 percent, India stands out and we need to bring this under control.

These are three clear risks to the current market satisfaction. It is always likely that we will carry on to remain in a risk-on mode and FII flows will persist to remain tough; though, given global oil prices, the current international opinion on the country, and valuations, this appears like a low probability.