London: The population on earth will stabilize around the middle of the century, scientists have predicted. The findings , obtained with a model used by physicists, coincide with UN's downward forecasts , Spain-based Scientific Information and News Service reported. According to UN, the world population in 2100 will be within a range between 15.8 billion according to the highest estimates and 6.2 billion according to the lowest a figure that stands below the current 7 billion.
A mathematical model developed by a team from Autonomous University of Madrid and CEUSan Pablo University seems to confirm the lower estimate.
The team started with a situation where birth rate and mortality rate were high, with slow growth favouring the former . But the mortality rate fell sharply in the second half of the 20th century. However, past three decades have seen a steep drop-off in the number of children being born.
The model's S-shaped sigmoid curve reflects this with an inflection point in mid-1980 s when population growth slows down & stabilizes by 2050.
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