Magazine : 
Global Financial Biggies like Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Citigroup and Others Catch India Poll Fever
BJP is trying to wrest power from Congress at the Centre. Giving a thumb up to the Gujarat business model, a Goldman Sachs study said that 40 million new manufacturing jobs can be created in a decade if states follow flexible labor laws like in Gujarat. In November 2013, Goldman Sachs had came under sharp attack from government and the Congress over upgrading Indian markets on a likely Narendra Modi election win. Analyzing the Indian elections, economists from leading foreign fund houses like Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas and Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that Indian economy is much more dependent on the global economic cycle than who rules in New Delhi.
Economists have broadly listed four post-poll scenarios and their possible repercussions on the Indian market. The four scenarios are- Modi-led NDA government with two-three allies; Modi-led NDA government with five-six allies; other leader led-NDA government with 8-10 allies or a Third Front government supported by Congress.
Some of the recent surveys suggest the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance coalition has solidified its lead and is now poised to emerge as the largest coalition. According to a BofA-ML report, the BJP-led NDA has a "fighting chance in around 425 of the 543 seats", but it did not predict a final tally.
BofA-ML, in a separate report, further said that in the upcoming general elections the key states that are likely to shape the next government are UP, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and Tamil Nadu as these are potential swing states where there is a multi-cornered fight. While national issues will have a big impact on the voting pattern, local level alliances would also matter and even a small swing of votes could materially change the seat tally of the parties, they said. "Among the key states to watch out for are UP, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, and Tamil Nadu. These states are potential swing states where there is a multi-cornered fight," Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts led by Jyotivardhan Jaipuria and Indranil Sen Gupta said in a research note. According to Morgan Stanley, the elections will produce a stable government, which can then take up some of these reforms in a steady fashion. More than 800 million people are expected to cast their vote this time. Elections are being held in nine phases between April 7 and May 12 and the results would be announced on May 16.
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