Narendra Modi Well on Way to India's PMship, But U.S. Still Mum on Visa Boycott

"Today, both Modi and the United States are trapped in a catch-22: in understandable pique, Modi has declared that he will never apply for an American visa again — and there is no way to revalidate his now-expired visa if he will not apply anew," said Ashley Tellis, from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a prestigious American think-tank.

"This constraint would not prevent Modi from visiting the U.S. in an official capacity as India's prime minister because he would be automatically eligible for an A-class visa as a head of government," Tellis said.

"Where international engagement is concerned, Modi is mostly likely to remember those who welcomed him while he was in the political wilderness—and that means Japan, Israel, Singapore, and even, with qualifications, China," Tellis said.

The Obama administration, he said, at any rate, has sought to signal its willingness to let bygones be bygones, declaring through the congressional testimony of Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Nisha Desai Biswal that it "look(s) forward to engagement with the new government".

While this constitutes an important overture, it is unlikely to win Modi's heart and mind. What would make the difference to him is either a public American expression of regret for the visa revocation or an open personal welcome to the United States, he observed.

"However, it is politically impossible for Washington to do the former, and it is unlikely that the latter will happen before Modi is clearly elevated to the position of prime minister," Tellis added.