What's at Stake for Vijay Mallya if Kingfisher Fails?

All are mere speculations: UBHL Group

The company stated that no more shares or other assets were directly pledged to banks against specific loans. The UB Group is finding any risk to Mallya's empire. "Since there are no shares pledged except the 4 percent of USL (United Spirits) there is no risk of Vijay Mallya losing control over any listed company," Prakash Mirpuri, UB group spokesman, told Reuters.

"Nobody can assume that UBHL will automatically be called upon to pay 100 percent of KFA's debts. There are procedures to be followed to establish the net amount if the need arises. Besides UBHL has several counter claims against KFA suppliers," he said. "UBHL has no plans to sell its holdings in UBL (United Breweries) and USL (United Spirits)."

According to the people concerned with the matter, neither Diageo nor Heineken is currently in talks with the UB Group. While both Diageo and Heineken has declined to comment on this.

Both Mallya and Heineken own 37.5 percent of United Breweries each. If Kingfisher’s banks called in UBHL’s guarantee, UBHL may become forced to sell its 11.5 percent of United Breweries, which would leave 26 percent still with Mallya, guaranteeing him with a say in the management decisions, unless Heineken tried to force him out, which is unlikely to happen.  "Dr Vijay Mallya provides significant added value as an ambassador for the industry's interests and is a member of Indian parliament," said Heineken in a December presentation.

United Spirits would also be difficult for Kingfisher’s creditors to price away. Of Mallya's 28 percent of United Spirits, 18 percent held by holding company UBHL is pledged to lenders that funded its $1.2 billion acquisition of Whyte and Mackay, the Scottish spirits maker.