India to overtake U.S. as world's second largest trading nation
Friday, 24 June 2011, 06:39 Hrs | 3 Comments
"According to our projections, world trade in goods and services will grow from $37 trillion in 2010 to $149 trillion in 2030 and $371 trillion in 2050," Citigroup's William Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari wrote in a research note released on Thursday.
"But at least as interesting as the growth in world trade that we forecast are the changes in its composition that we expect over the course of the next four decades, with today's emerging markets set to gain much more prominence in world trade relative to advanced economies," they were quoted as saying by CNBC.
China is expected by Citi to become the world's biggest trader by 2015 but it is India's rise that could come as a surprise to many, according to Citi's analysis.
"In terms of the largest countries by trade, we expect China to overtake the US to become the world's largest trader by 2015 and to remain in the top spot for the rest of our forecast horizon," the report said.
"India, which does not even feature in the top 10 of the world's largest traders in 2010, is expected to be the world's second-largest trader by 2050, with the US in third place," the report predicted.
The report as cited by the news channel also predicts that trade between emerging markets will overtake that between advanced economies in just four years in a clear sign that the world's major economies of Europe and North America are set to lose relative importance to the global economy.
The big winner according to the report will be Asia. "Developing Asia accounted for 24 percent of world trade in 2010, but its share is expected to reach 42 percent by 2030 and 46 percent by 2050," said Buiter and Rahbari.
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