Bangalore: Hawksworth, an economist based in London, projects that India will become the third-largest economy racing past Japan. According to him, after 2020, India will grow more quickly than China because it will have a younger and faster-growing population. He added that the Chinese growth will begin to slow after 2020 because of its rapidly aging population.
India's growth can be accredited to pharmaceuticals, power, telecommunications, civil aviation, insurance and real estate and an increasing foreign direct investment influx. As per an internal survey, India's working age population is expected to grow continuously over the next 40 years.
One prime factor for India's development will be the consumer base which is much higher as compared to China and thus a better invested capital.
According to the International Monetary Fund Estimates, the Chinese economy will total about $5.4 trillion this year, while the U.S. one will be about $14.8 trillion - almost three times the size of the Chinese economy. To catch the U.S., China will have to grow extremely fast while the U.S. economy dawdles.
For China to catch the U.S. in 10 years, its economy would have to grow at more than 12 percent per annum, for example, while the U.S. grows at 2 percent, Bryson estimates. However, most economists say, it is unlikely that China will have sustained growth that high and the U.S. will be that low.