India shines amid volatility, export target nears $870 billion: Piyush Goyal
- India’s total exports hit $825 billion in 2024-25, with goods and services showing strong growth, outlook for 2025-26 is $870 billion.
- New FTAs with UAE and Australia boosted trade significantly, but older deals with Japan and South Korea under review for limited benefits.
- Government is pushing value-added, labour-intensive exports and crafting FTAs based on national interest with stakeholder input.
Despite global economic headwinds, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal remains optimistic about India’s export trajectory, projecting a new high for the current fiscal year, buoyed by Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and a resilient domestic economy. He noted that under the Modi government’s 11-year tenure, India has adeptly navigated periods of volatility and uncertainty, with total exports reaching a record $825 billion in 2024-25.
This marks a growth of over 6% from the previous year and reflects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% over the past decade. Electronics exports, in particular, have surged at a remarkable CAGR of 20%, while traditional sectors like engineering and pharmaceuticals have also seen consistent gains. Between 2019-20 and 2024-25, goods exports grew at a CAGR of 6.9%, despite the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Commercial services exports grew even faster, registering a 12% CAGR between 2019 and 2023, the latest period for which country-level data is available.
Looking ahead, Goyal anticipates that goods exports especially non-petroleum items could maintain a steady 5-6% growth rate, while services may grow at a stronger pace of 9-10%. If these projections hold, India could surpass $870 billion in total exports in the current fiscal year. The focus, he emphasized, is increasingly shifting towards value-added and labour-intensive exports, aligning with broader economic and employment goals.
India’s growing FTA network is playing a key role in reshaping trade dynamics. Agreements with the UAE, Australia, EFTA, and the UK have already begun to yield results. With the UAE, services exports have nearly doubled in four to five years, while exports to Australia have nearly tripled, with goods exports rising at a 25% annual rate and surpassing $8 billion from just $3 billion earlier.
However, Goyal expressed concerns over older FTAs signed during the UPA era, particularly with Japan and South Korea. He pointed out that services exports to Japan have stagnated and that the agreement failed to provide broad coverage for India’s interests. A review with South Korea is ongoing, while Japan has yet to agree. Goyal stressed that current FTAs are crafted with extensive stakeholder consultations, with national interest as the top priority.
