India's FY25 Trade Surplus with US Rises, Deficit with China Nears $100 Billion


India's FY25 Trade Surplus with US Rises, Deficit with China Nears $100 Billion
India’s trade dynamics with its top two trading partners the United States and China took contrasting turns in FY25, provisional data from the Commerce Department revealed.
India’s trade surplus with the US grew significantly, with exports rising 11.6% to $86.5 billion and imports increasing by 7.4% to $45.3 billion. The resulting trade surplus stood at $41 billion an uptick that could raise concerns in Washington, especially as Donald Trump, a known critic of trade imbalances, prepares for a potential return to office.
Meanwhile, India’s trade deficit with China widened sharply, nearing the $100 billion mark. Exports to China dropped to $14.2 billion, while imports surged 11.5% to $113.5 billion, building on an already high base. The decline in exports pushed China to the fifth spot among India’s top export destinations, as the UK rose to fourth place.
A significant driver of the export slump to China was a sharp fall in ore shipments, particularly iron. Between April 2024 and January 2025, ore exports nearly halved to $1.5 billion. Exports of iron and steel, aluminium, and cotton also saw notable declines cotton exports dropped from $725 million to just $192 million during the same period.
In contrast, the surge in exports to the US was fueled by growing shipments of smartphones, especially iPhones, driven by Apple’s increasing manufacturing footprint in India. This also led to a dramatic 70% fall in smartphone imports from China, down to $252 million. However, imports of electronic components from China saw an increase.
Chinese-made computers and various machinery from air conditioners to embroidery units continued to dominate India’s import basket. Notably, imports of photovoltaic cells declined by 20% to $2.4 billion, while lithium-ion battery imports slightly dipped to $1.8 billion.
Despite stable trading partnerships, India’s export-import patterns highlight growing industrial shifts and a push for self-reliance amid global realignments.