'India Won't have China's Luck': Aswath Damodaran's

Damodaran, a prominent figure in valuation, analyzes the winners and losers of globalization. Among the beneficiaries are China, which has contributed nearly 38% to global GDP growth from 2010 to 2023, consumers who enjoy greater choices at lower prices, and financial markets that have become integral to public policy. Other winners include global institutions, multinational corporations, and thought leaders who influence discussions at platforms like Davos.

Conversely, there are notable losers. Japan and Europe have seen a decline in economic influence, while small businesses and blue-collar workers in developed nations have struggled due to increased competition and offshoring. In the U.S., manufacturing jobs have plummeted from nearly 20 million in 1979 to about 13 million in 2024. Damodaran also highlights a concerning trend of democratic erosion, where voters seeking change often find policies shaped by a "global script."

These dynamics are not merely theoretical; they significantly affect company valuations. Damodaran emphasizes the necessity of incorporating global economic and political factors into his assessments. A case in point is Tesla. In 2024, he valued Tesla at $182 and purchased shares at $170. However, the competitive landscape has shifted, with China's BYD emerging as a serious contender, hybrids gaining popularity, and CEO Elon Musk's controversial politics affecting public perception. Consequently, Damodaran's revised estimate for Tesla is now $150 per share, reflecting a $30 decrease from the previous year and $70 below its current stock price.