India is Not Expected to Suffer Significant Losses in Its Agricultural Due to Trump's Tariffs: Economist Ashok Gulati

Ashok Gulati, a prominent Indian agricultural economist and professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), has expressed that India is not expected to suffer significant losses in its agricultural exports due to the new tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump.

He noted that with strategic negotiation during bilateral trade discussions with the US, India could potentially benefit.  Ashok Gulati remarked, "If competing nations face lower tariffs than India, we might see a decline in exports for those specific products. However, overall, it appears that India may not be heavily impacted in the agricultural sector. With smart negotiations in a bilateral trade agreement (BTA), there could be opportunities for gain."

Ashok Gulati further explained that the effects of these tariffs will vary across different agricultural products. The ultimate impact will depend on several factors, including the tariff rates set by the US for India compared to those for other competing nations. Currently, Indian agricultural exports to the US are subject to a 27 percent tariff, according to trade documents.

What is crucial is how these tariffs stack up against those imposed on competing countries in similar product categories. For instance, if Indian rice faces a 26 percent tariff while rice from competitors like Vietnam and Thailand incurs even higher tariffs, India could stand to gain.

Conversely, if those countries are subjected to lower tariffs, India may lose its market share in the US. Ashok Gulati pointed out, "The effects of Trump's tariff policies will differ significantly across various agricultural commodities. To assess the potential impact, one must consider not only the tariff rate on Indian exports (26 percent) but also the rates applied to competing countries' exports to the US."

He stressed that the key to navigating this situation lies in strategic negotiation. If India can secure a favorable bilateral trade agreement with the US, it may be able to transform the challenge posed by tariffs into a beneficial opportunity.