Study On The Estimation Of Number Of Persons Displaced Due To Construction Of Dams In India Since Independence
Sanjay Kumar Panda*, Director(ISO), CWC,
R. K. Puram, New Delhi-110066.
Abstracts: Out of many estimates of dam displaced persons available in the literature, a reasonable estimate has been worked out taking rural population density in the sub-merged area and canal area since independence in India.
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Given the dynamic role of Water in most human endeavors, water resource management focused at a rational and balanced allocation of water as per its availability and assessed actual need, is of key concern to water resource planners. The water is vital for existence of life on earth. Human beings for various developmental activities including day-to-day chores need it. The requirement of water is for domestic uses, development of industries, and generation of hydropower, ensuring ensured water supply for irrigation and for various other miscellaneous uses like navigation, environment improvement, socio economic development and maintenance of ecological balance and healthy environment.
1.2 The precipitation (including snowfall) is the source of all water on the earth. The availability of water is, however, irregular, restricted and finite both in space and time. It is not available in places where we want it, at the time when we want it and in quantities in which we want it. This precious natural resource is also getting continuously strained due to consistently increasing population, large-scale industrialization and growth of urbanization.
1.3 To ensure availability of water to the society throughout the year for meeting its requirement and for planning various developmental activities storage reservoirs are required by constructing water resource projects which may be major, medium or minor according to the prevailing situation in the area, topography and other technical considerations. The water resource projects are thus planned, designed, executed, operated and managed with the specific objective of providing availability of water for irrigation, domestic, industry, power generation, flood control etc. and thereby contribute to the development and improvement in socio economic levels.
1.4 The water resource development is a must for economic prosperity and for enhancing the quality of life of the people. India is among the foremost countries in the world in exploiting its river water resources for conservation of water for irrigation, flood control, generation of hydro power, ensure supply of water for domestic use, for industrial and various other miscellaneous uses. A large number of projects, dams, barrages, hydro power structures,
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* The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and not necessarily of Govt. of India or the organization to which he belongs.
canal net work etc have come all over the country in successive five year plans. A mile stone in water resource development is creation of huge storage capacity because of which it has now become possible to provide assured irrigation in the command areas, to ensure supply of water for hydro power plants located at different places and to meet requirement of water for various other uses. The availability of assured irrigation water made possible by water resources projects has played a lead role in achieving self-sufficiency in meeting internal food requirement. The assured irrigation water has resulted in significant increase in crop productivity ultimately reflecting on total production. It is now also possible to effect moderation in flood prone areas where storages have been provided. Yet another significant contribution is the availability of safe drinking water in remote areas. Other positive contribution include increase in safe drinking water both in urban and rural areas and reduction in the severity of droughts to a large extent. The irrigation development in tribal areas has also been a significant contribution.
1.5 The Water resources projects have brought tremendous benefits to nation and the masses. In addition to a number of direct benefits as adequately highlighted in the preceding paras, it has also brought out numerous incidental benefits from construction of large dams and canal systems which include improvement in environment and health, afforestation, fisheries development, development of tourism and recreational facilities, employment generation, development of agro based industries, development of network of roads (especially in command areas) development of land and above all improvement in general socio economic standards of people.
1.6 The large dams have thus large scale positive impact on people as mentioned above, but it has also a number of detrimental impacts such as submergence of forests and agricultural land, archaeological and historical monuments, displacement of people, land degradation, soil erosion, water logging, spread of water borne diseases like malaria, danger to wild life etc. The main detrimental effect, however, remains that of resettlement and rehabilitation (R&R) of displaced project affected persons (PAPs) whose land and property gets partially or fully submerged in reservoir. As such, the R&R of the PAPs due to submergence caused by reservoirs or due to the construction of canals is one of the vital concerns of the water resources project authorities. While formulating Water resource projects, due care is taken by implementing agencies to prepare comprehensive plans for resettlement and rehabilitation of people, to be implanted pari passu. With the construction of dams, to assure that PAPs get adequate compensation, are rehabilitated properly at the new village sites provided with adequate civic amenities including roads and electricity and offered suitable socio economic packages so that their economic condition improves after rehabilitation as compared to what prevailed before the project. The resettlement and rehabilitation of the project affected persons assumes particular significance as the execution of water resources projects has resulted in sizeable displacement of one of the most economically backward tribal population. It has been estimated by Fernandes and Paranjpye (1997) that out of a total 16 millions estimated displaced persons during 1950-1990, 6.32 millions were tribals.
1.7 Our data base is, however, weak and we do not have authentic or reliable information even on the PAPs. The non availability of simple information on this single parameter has at times resulted in hindrance in execution of projects. Although the Govt. has been categorical in emphasing time and again that resettlement and rehabilitation of PAPs is being done in a time bound phased manner and does from part of the project proposal, yet in the absence of availability of reliable estimates even on the number of PAPs, the Govts. Claim loses all credibility.
2. CONCEPTUAL ISSUES IN ESTIMATION OF PAPs
2.1 The displacement caused by large scale irrigation and hydro-projects have drawn considerable attention particularly in recent years. Many researchers have noted that project proposals for such large scale water resource management initiatives do not include realistic assessment of the displacement to be caused and the costs of rehabilitation (Thukral 1992, McCully 1997, Singh 1997). Numerous studies have also been conducted by various researchers on resettlement and rehabilitation of displaced persons (or lack thereof) and of the impact of displacement on income, standards of living and physical and emotional health.
2.2 In India, the government, which is the planner, financer, developer and owner of large dam project, does not have figures of people displaced by large dams, either since independence in 1947 or in toto. The non availability of information even on this subject has given credence to the opponents that the execution of water resources project have resulted in large scale dislocation of persons without adequate compensation, resettlement and rehabilitation to which the Govt. is duty bound as a welfare state. This is particularly clear when we see that India is the third largest dam builder country in the world. It now has about 3600 large dams and about 700 are under construction.
2.3 As per the assessment of the World Bank, large dams are the single largest cause of displacement in India since India got independence in 1947. As per the World Bank though large dams constitute only 26.6% of the total WB funded projects causing displacement, the resulting displacement makes up 62.8% of the total number of people displaced (Cernea 1996b). It is also his view that project authorities do not consider the problems of displacement and rehabilitation as important parts of the project and that the primary concerns are engineering specifications and electricity and irrigation benefits. Under these circumstances the concerned authorities seldom undertake detailed and systematic surveys of the population to be displaced (Thukral, 1992).
2.4 It has also been pointed out by various researchers that project authorities often provide lower displacement figures than might actually be the case in proposal documents, so as to show a favourable cost benefit ratio to the funding authority and thus ensure clearance for the project (McCully, 1997; Cernea, 1996b). A World Bank review of the status of displacement and rehabilitation has shown that the displacement of as many as 0.6 million people across 192 projects had not been accounted for in project planning. In at least one instance, the number of people actually displaced were seven times the number stated in the project documents (McCully, 1997:92). Estimates of displaced persons by independent researchers on the contrary are also much higher than as being projected by the Govt. Viegas (1992) points out, drawing on extensive field investigation, that the number of persons displaced by the Hirakud dam was between 1.1 lakh and 1.6 lakh, while the official figures are only 1.1 lakh. Fernandes & Thukral (1989) point out that unofficial figures of displacement due to the Hirakud dam are 1.8 lakh persons (Pattnaik, Das & Misra, 1987, quoted in Fernandes & Thukral 1989). In case of Bargi dam project on Narmada river in western Madhya Pradesh, till the dam was constructed and reservoir was filled, the project authorities kept saying that 101 villages will be submerged. However, when the reservoir was filled, the number of villages submerged was 162.
2.5 Further, Thukral (1992) points out that displacement in dam projects often begins before surveys are complete. This obviously leads to underestimation of the number of persons displaced.
2.6 It has also been the view of various researchers that another shortcoming of projected Govt. estimated PAPs due to large dams is that only reservoir displacement is taken into account whereas large dam projects displace people in a number of other ways also including due to colonies, due to canals, downstream impacts, catchment area treatment, compensatory afforestation, secondary displacement (at resettlement colonies, for example) and due to related conservation schemes like sanctuaries and national parks. The figures of all such categories of displacement, when put together and accounted for results in much larger figures of displacement In the case of Sardar Sarovar Project (SSP), under construction on Narmada river in Gujarat state in western India as per the latest figures of government while over 41,000 families will get displaced due to reservoir, the canals of SSP will in reality affect a much larger number of people as canals take up 186,000 ha of land compared to reservoir area of 40,000 ha. As per the conservative estimates, 24,000 khatedaars (land-holding families, meaning thereby, a much larger number of families, since one joint land holder generally represents many more families) will be seriously affected by canals. Similarly, over 10,000 fisherfolk families will lose their livelihood in downstream areas due to complete stoppage of river flow in non-monsoon months due to the dam. About 1,000 families have already been affected by the colonies.
2.7 Although, the World Bank (1991) estimates that equivalent of some 2-5% of the irrigated command area is taken up by canals and a further 3-8% of land is taken up by reservoirs. But these can be gross underestimations is apparent from the case of SSP quoted above, where equivalent of over 10% of projected irrigated command area is to be taken away by canals. Similarly, in case of Subernarekha project on Bihar-Orissa border, the submergence land is over 12% of projected command area land.
2.8 Displacement also takes place where townships are established for technical and administrative personnel involved in the construction of the project, and where protected areas are established as compensatory measures for the forest lands and natural habitats that are lost to submergence. In areas where the oustees are to be resettled, many of the previous residents who do not have title to the land they cultivate, are forced to leave as the land is bought and allotted to project oustees.
2.9 Estimates of displacement also fail to take into account the backwater effect, i.e. the rise in water level as the reservoir begins to silt up. As a result the submergence area is in reality larger than originally estimated and consequently, larger numbers of people are displaced than originally thought to be the case. Further, persons resettled on the edges of the reservoir may be forced to move repeatedly as the waters rise to submerge the new settlements. Improper surveying also leads to people being resettled within the planned submergence area. Such multiple displacement is not taken into account when estimating the numbers displaced by a dam project. A lack of coordination between different projects also leads to oustees being forced to move repeatedly. Persons resettled due to submergence may come in the way of industrial plants, mines, or railway lines that are separate components of the plan to "develop" a region.
3. OVERVIEW OF AVAILABLE ESTIMATES/METHODOLOGY
Displacement due to dams in India has been variously estimated. The methodology adopted for working out the estimates have largely relied upon the estimated number of persons displaced per dam based on the readily available information/survey conducted by them for a few projects and then arriving at the total estimated number, pro rata. Yet another approach adopted for estimation of the number of PAPs relates to working out cost per persons for project(s) for which the number of displaced person is known and then working but the estimates of the total number pro rata by relating it with the total cost of all the projects. The results are summarized below.
3.1 IIPA method – 145 million: The Indian Institute of Public Administration (IIPA) concluded from a study of 54 dams that the average number displaced per dam was 44,182. For 3,300 dams, the total displaced is therefore 145 million. That is 3 million a year continuously displaced for 50 years! So look around you – every fourth person you meet is a displaced dam person or her descendant.
3.2 The Greater Common Good method – 50 million: Indulging in gracious pyrotechnics, and wanting to err on the side of “abundant caution” Roy suggests taking an average of only 10,000 displaced, rather than the (IIPA) 44,000 estimate. This yields 33 million displaced. An expert government official is cited in support: “in the region of 50 million (of which 40 million were displaced by dams)”. So the (incorrect) correct number is either 33 or 40 million; no justification (other than rounding up) is provided for the explosive 50 million estimates. Look around again – every tenth rural person (one in every two rural families) belongs of the “displaced”.
3.3 All-dams-as-bad-as-the-Sardar-Sarovar-Project (SSP) method – 17 million: The SSP project contains one very large dam and 29 other Big Dams. The people displaced from this project can be used for an estimate. But this raises a problem – whose figures does one believe – the government (about 40,000) or the NBA (about 4,15,000)? Neither. Instead, the estimate provided by the “objective” Morse Commission report (one that was commissioned by the World Bank, and one that damned the World Bank’s Narmada project, and one approvingly cited by the anti-damwallas) is a “conservative figure” and that the likely number displaced is about 1,50,000.
In stark contrast to the IIPA’s average figure of 44,000, the most controversial project in world history displaces a relatively low average figure of only 5,000 (150,000 people, 30 dams). Thus, the SSP-based estimate is about 17 million displaced. (3,300 dams, 5000 per dam).
3.4 All-dams-as-displacing-as-World Bank projects – 14 million: The World Bank (Resettlement and Development, March 1996) carried out a survey of all projects (dams, power, transport etc.) involving resettlement. There were 146 such projects worldwide. Since displacement data are provided per project, a per dam estimate is hard to come by. There were 58 projects in the “central gravity” of the distribution – 1,000-10,000 – and each such project displaced an average of 4,189 persons. If the same displacement estimate is applied to each of India’s 3,300 dams, (an exaggerated assumption), then one obtains a “maximum” estimate of about 14 million.
3.5 International Movement Against Big Dams method – 3.7 million: The International Rivers Network, an anti-dam organisation, provides the only estimates available of people displaced exclusively by dams. They state that there are more than 40,000 big dams and the total displaced worldwide is between 30 and 60 million. If 45 million is assumed to be representative, then an average dam displaces 1,125 people. For India’s 3300 big dams, that is 3.7 million.
3.6 Economic Method – 3.4 million: Irrigation expenditures on the Narmada project can be used to estimate the likely number of people displaced by dams in India. The irrigation (dam and canal) component of the SSP project is slated to cost Rs. 8,125 crore (total project cost – Rs. 22,000 crore; all figures, 1999 prices). If it is assumed that the SSP project displaced 1,50,000 people (Morse report), then each Rs 1,000 crore of expenditure on irrigation displaces 18,500 people. Since Independence, India has spent Rs 185,000 crore on “major and medium” irrigation projects. If all – every rupee - of this expenditure went towards dam construction, and if it is assumed that people displaced are proportional to money spent on irrigation (i.e. larger the dam, more the cost, and greater the people displaced by 3,300 dams is (1,85,000/8,125) x 1,50,000=3.4 million.
3.7 Fernandes and Paranjpye (1997) Estimate – 16.4 millions
Fernandes and Paranjpye, gave an independent estimate of the total persons displaced by dams during 1950-1990 as 164 lakhs or 16.4 millions, out of which 63.21 lakhs are tribals.
4. CRITIQUE OF THE AVAILABLE ESTIMATES
As pointed out above, the estimation of the number of PAPs has been attracting the attention of various researchers from time to time including World Bank and they have come out with necessary estimates also. But even inspite of uniformity in the approach adopted by them there is wide variation in the available estimates. Obviously, the number of persons displaced because of construction of a dam would depend upon size of the dam i.e. larger the dam size, larger the number displaced. As such if the total number of PAPs is not available for most of the projects, by estimating the number pro rata based on available number for a few projects as adopted by various researchers, we are bound to arrive at erroneous result as the number of persons displaced is bound to vary depending on size of the project, area in which located, population density of the area etc. as also evident from the estimates made by various researchers/organisation. An alternate and perhaps better and more rational approach would be to make use of other proxy variables such as reservoir area at Full Reservoir Level (FRL), Gross Capacity of reservoirs instead of relying upon the projected number of persons displaced for some of the dams for which it is available in estimating the total number of persons displaced because of construction of all dams. The reservoir area at FRL, Gross Capacity etc. being fixed and are not capable of being manipulated as against the manipulation of the number of displaced persons as projected by the project authorities as apprehended by various researchers. The adoption of the non manipulative figures of Reservoir Area at FRL, Gross Capacity etc for estimation of the number of persons displaced may provide a more objective and reliable estimate free from human bias.
5. SCOPE OF THE STUDY
5.1 One of the foremost objective of the water resources projects is to ensure assured water availability for irrigation. Viewed in that context and the fact that the canal also from an integrated part of any dam/water resources projects and consequently displacement of the masses on account of construction of canals at least should also be taken in to account in working out the estimate of PAPs because of execution of water resources projects. The scope of the analysis in this paper is however restricted to the estimates of persons directly affected by the construction of large dams. The estimation of canal affected persons and the persons affected on other accounts have not been taken in to account as it requires another study for which we do not have minimum adequate date for the needed analysis. However, according to our rough estimate based on the assessment made by the World Bank in 1991 and the case of SSPs as in preceding para where 10% of the projected irrigated command area is to be taken by the canals, the estimated number of persons displaced because of canals may be expected to be between 1.5 & 3 millions.
5.2 An attempt has been made in this paper to work out an independent estimate of the total number of persons affected because of construction of large dams, independent in the sense that the number of persons affected by dams as projected by project authorities/ various researchers for some selected projects have not been taken into account at all as these are apprehended to be subjective for the reasons as in the preceding para(s) and rather the fixed and firm parameters not capable of being manipulated have been made use of. The necessary details are given in subsequent paras.
6. METHODOLOGY
6.1 A total of 3081 large dams have been constructed since 1947 and 6954 dams were under construction in the country as on 1994. At the time of the conceptualization of the projects, due care is taken by the Government to ensure that minimum dislocation takes place and such projects are expected to be concentrated in rural, remote and scarcely populated areas. The available information as documented in ”National Register of Large Dam (1994)” is restricted to the following parameters viz. height above lowest formation, length of dam, volume, gross capacity, reservoir Area at FRL, effective capacity and designed spillway capacity damwise. However, even this restricted information is deficient in that the information on all parameters is not available for all dams. Direct estimation of the number of displaced persons is, therefore, not possible. An indirect estimation may, therefore, only be attempted which too involves a number of assumption in view of deficiency even in the existing data on indirect parameters. The estimated number of persons displaced has been finally obtained as product of estimated submergence area and estimated rural population density. The details of the methodology adopted for estimation is summarized below:
i The number of dams constructed after independence up to 1994 and under construction in 1994 have been included for estimation of the desired number.
ii The estimates have been worked out state wise for major (height above 15 m) and medium dams (height between 10 m to 15 m) separately. Other dams have not been taken in to consideration.
iii The reservoir area at FRL is taken as the submergence area i.e. the area from which the displacement takes place. The information on this parameter is available for 1844 completed projects out of a total of 3081 completed projects and 489 projects under construction out of a total of 695 projects under construction.
iv. Of the remaining completed projects the projects for which the information on the reservoir area at FRL is not available but Gross Capacity is available, the average ratio of Reservoir Area at FRL and Gross Capacity observed at state level has been applied to Gross Capacity for estimating submergence.
v. For the projects for which no information on Reservoir Area at FRL but projectwise Gross Capacity is available in the States of Gujarat, Manipur and Meghalaya, the submergence Area has been estimated as the combined observed Ratio of Reservoir Area at FRL and Gross Capacity of the neighboring states of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra for Gujarat and Assam for the states of Meghalaya and Manipur.
vi. Finally for those projects for which information on both the parameters (Reservoir Area at FRL as well as Gross Capacity) is not available, the Submergence Area is estimated pro-rata in proportion to the number of projects.
vii. The estimated number of displaced persons is taken as the product of the estimated submergence area and estimated weighted average population density. The spatial distribution (rural/urban) of the dams is not available. However, in view of the fact that at the time of conceptualisation of the project(s) due care is taken to ensure that the minimum dislocation takes place and consequently such projects are expected to be generally concentrated in rural, remote and scarcely populated areas, the population density in the project-affected area is therefore, taken as the population density of the rural area of the states.
Further, the dislocation of the persons from the project area does not start immediately at the time of commencement of the project and is linked with the stage of construction/progress of the project and scattered over different years, a weighted averaged population density since 1951 has being used. However, as the population density for 1951 is not available for a number of the states, the population density for 1961 onwards has to be used for working out estimated weighted average population density which may result in slight over estimation of the number.
[1] Bhall, Surjit (A World Bank consultant in New Delhi), 1999, private communication regarding CWC figures of displacement compiled by him.
[2] Cernea, M.M. 1996. "Public Policy Responses to Development Induced Population Displacement". EPW: June 15 1996:1515-1523.
[3] E.G. Thukral (ed.)BigDams, Displaced People: Rivers of Sorrow, Rivers of Change. Sage Publications, New Delhi.
[4] Fernandes, W. S.C. Das & Sam Rao. 1989. "Displacement & Rehabilitation : an estimate of the extent and prospects" in W. Fernandes & E.G. Thukral (eds.).Development, Displacement and Rehabilitation. ISI. New Delhi.
[5] Fernandes W. & E.G. Thukral (eds.)1989. Development, Displacement and Rehabilitation. ISI. New Delhi.
[6] Fernandes, W., S. Choudhury, M. Rao & N. Misra. 1993. Deforestation Displacement and Impoversihment of Tribals: Are Tribal Sub-plans the Solution? Unpublished report. ISI. New Delhi.
[7] Gleick, P.H. 1999. The World’s Water: The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources. Island Press. Washington D.C.
[8] Hemadri, R. 1999."Indian Experience onDisplacement, Resettlement, and Development: People’s Perspectives". Annexure to WCD Submission on Dams, Displacement, Policy and Law in India.
[9] Jharana Jhaveri and Singh Anurag, 1997. Kaise Jeebo Re, documentary film on displacement in Narmada Valley, Jan Madhyam, New Delhi.
[10] Leidermann, S.M.1999. "Environmental Refugees from Energy Projects:
[11] Exploration, Extraction, Construction, Operation and Waste Disposal" Unpublished paper for the "Symposium on Global Connections: Environmental Justice in the Americas and Abroad" at the Annual Meeting of the Geological Society of America Thursday, October 23, 1997 Salt City Convention Center, Salt Lake, City Utah
[12] McCully, Patrick. 1997. Silenced Rivers: The Ecology and Politics of Large Dams. Orient Longman. Hyderabad, India.
[13] Misra, Swati. 1995. "Development, Displacement and Rehabilitation: with specific reference to Big Dams in India". CSSS, SSS,JNU.
[14] Roy Arundhati, 1999. The Greater Common Good, India Book Distributors, Delhi.
[15] Singh, Satyajit. 1997. Taming the Waters:the political economy of large dams in India.i Delhi. Oxford University Press.
[16] Smitha, Sunil. 1996. "Fishing in the Tawa reservoir: Adivasi’s Struggle for Livelihood" EPW. April 6, 1996:870-872.
[17] World Bank 1991. India Irrigation Sector Review, World Bank, Washington.
