CONTRIBUTION OF IRRIGATION ON INCREASE IN FOOD GRAIN PRODUCTION IN INDIA DURING 1950-51 TO 2001-02

S.K.PANDA,Director(MIS),M/Commerce & Industry.

INTRODUCTION   

*The views expressed in this paper are those of authors and not necessarily of Govt. of India or the organization to which they belong.

creation of huge storage capacity because of which it has become possible now to interalia provide assured irrigation in the command areas.

2.         The net result of all these efforts on agricultural front is that we are presently surplus in food resulting in savings in foreign exchange and also substantial increase in power generation.  The import of foodgrains was inevitable to cover up the shortage in the initial years after independence.  But now the country is self sufficient in foodgrains.  The availability of assured irrigation water made possible by water resources projects has played a lead role in achieving the present stage of economic development of the economy.  The assured irrigation made possible by ever expanding irrigation facilities has resulted in increase in crop productivity reflecting on the total production.

3.         In India, Government is providing assured water supply for irrigation through Major & Medium projects and Minor Irrigation Schemes/Projects particularly in Command Area.  Irrigation by Major & Medium Projects is synonymous with Canal Irrigation in India. This category of Irrigation projects are entirely dealt with by the public sector and tap surface river flows by constructing barrages and large dams across rivers.  The culturable command area of major project is 10,000 hectares or above, medium irrigation projects is between 2,000 and 10,000 hectares and minor projects is less than 2,000 hectares.  Financial information about Government Major & Medium Projects & Minor Irrigation Schemes is available in the budget documents of the Union and State Governments. 

4.                  Activity of building large and medium dams in India is now quite old.  This has provided us better and safe life over the period.  Our civilization depended on it for development and protection.  Dams are national wealth and have contributed to the development of our economy.  Large public investments have been made in the past and both Central and States Governments are investing crores of rupees to reap benefits in the form of increased Gross Domestic Product from Agriculture.  Development of water resources in the basin requires a judicious combination of major and medium dams. The choice between large or small is largely site specific. The storage dams along with ground water exploitation (Minor Irrigation) have helped us attaining Green Revolution in Agriculture.  This has provided us self-sufficiency in food grains, to fight droughts and floods, provide water supply for domestic and industrial usage, provide greater hydro power and navigational & recreational facilities.

ROLE OF IRRIGATION IN PRODUCTION AND REVIEW OF AVAILABLE ESTIMATES

5.         No doubt water resources development is a must not only for economic prosperity of the masses but also for existence of life on earth.  At the same time, however, feed back on resultant benefits also becomes essential for justification of huge public investments being made in the execution of water resources projects for a developing country particularly like ours with limited resources.  The absence of necessary feed back has many a times resulted in hindrance in execution of projects.  The resultant feed back on derived benefits thus becomes essential and inescapable.  The provision of water for irrigation being inter-alia one of the foremost objectives of the water resources projects which has direct impact on production, the impact of irrigation on production is one area which requires in depth analysis, 

6.         As per the study sponsored by the World Commission on Dams (WCD) in 2000, the estimated contribution of irrigation on increase in food grain production during  1950-51 to 1993-94 in India was about 30% and of large dams about 10% [Working Paper by Nirmal Sengupta].  The Commission is critical about the role of large dams, keeping in view the huge investment involved in execution of these projects on one hand and the large scale displacement of the masses from projects sites on the other hand.  On the contrary, as per the Planning Commission of India, the contribution of irrigation on food grain production is 56% (Reference: Ninth Five year Plan 1997-2002-Volume II – Thematic issues and  sectoral programme).

7.         What then is the impact of irrigation and consequently water resources development projects on agricultural production in India?  The matter requires an in depth analysis in view of divergence in the available estimates, available from the two major sources as mentioned above. The details of the methodology adopted by the Planning Commission for contribution of food grain production is, however, not available in their report.  They have, however, taken contribution of irrigation in food grain production as the percentage of food grain production in irrigated area.

8.         The World Commission on Dams' sponsored study have, however, carried out a detailed Statistical analysis.  The basic assumption used in their analysis is that the effects of productivity inputs like fertilizers, pesticides and improved HYV seeds on one hand and assured water supply ensured by irrigation facilities on the other hand in production are separable.  Is it really so needs validation because this basic assumption has utmost bearing on the estimate.  Logically, production is a joint outcome of the productivity inputs like fertilizers, pesticides and  improved HYV seeds on one hand and assured water supply for irrigation on the other hand and the productivity inputs and irrigation being supplementary to each other the contribution of these two factors may or may not be separable?  Statistically no doubt it may be possible to separate out the effects of the two factors on production but in the ultimate, if not separable, it will only result in erroneous results.  It is just like working out correlation ship between two variables irrespective of whether correlation ship is meaningful or not although mathematically, it is always possible to work out correlation ship between any two variables.

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

9.         As mentioned earlier agriculture is of paramount importance in India’s economy and irrigation has played a lead role in this.  With this in view various water resources projects ensuring  availability of water for irrigation as one of the foremost objectives involving huge public investments have been executed and are under execution by the Government.  But whether irrigation and consequently water resources projects have contributed significantly on this front or else its contribution has been only marginal as estimated by the World Commission on Dams' sponsored study, is a matter which requires in depth analysis.  The basic objective of this study/analysis is to estimate the contribution of irrigation on increase in food grain production since 1950.-51  In the process, we have also tried to verify whether the basic assumption used by the World Commission's study in their analysis that the effects of productivity inputs and irrigation are separable is a valid assumption or not primarily because this assumption has an overall bearing on the results.

METHODOLOGY

10.       We have used a two tier approach in our analysis.  In the first stage we have tried to isolate the combined effects of productivity inputs and irrigation on increase in food grain production.  We have done it under two hypothetical conditions so as also to satisfy on whether the effects of productivity inputs and irrigation on production are separable or not. Under Assumption I, we have kept productivity constant at 1950-51 level i.e. assuming no increase in productivity after 1950-51, what would have been the increase in production vis a vis actual observed increase in production both in rain fed and irrigated area.  Under Assumption II we have kept irrigated area constant at 1950-51 level i.e. assuming no irrigation area expansion what would have been the increase in production vis a vis actual observed increase in production both in rain fed and irrigated areas again.  The net of the actual observed production increase during the period 1950-51 to 2001-02) in the rainfed /irrigated area and the hypothetical estimated production increase under Assumption I isolates the effect of irrigation on increase in production and gives the contribution of productivity in rainfed/irrigated area using this assumption.  The increase in the production in rainfed/irrigated area i.e. net of the actual/estimated production and estimated production under Assumption I accounts to the contribution of area increase in rainfed/irrigated area. 

11.       Under Assumption II we have kept irrigated area constant at 1950-51 level assuming no irrigated area extension what would have been the increase in production vis a vis the actual observed increase in production both in rainfed and irrigated areas.  The net of the actual observed increase in the production during the period 1950-51 to 2001-02 in the rainfed/irrigated area and the hypothetical estimated production increase under Assumption II isolates the effect of productivity on increase in production and gives the contribution of irrigation using this assumption. The increase in production in rainfed/irrigated area i.e. net of the actual estimated production and estimated production under Assumption II accounts to the contribution of productivity. 

12.       In the second stage, we have first compared the estimated contributions obtained under the two assumptions. Logically, the estimated contributions using the two assumptions should be the same if the joint effect of productivity and irrigation on increase in production are separable.  In that case we can take this as estimated contribution of the two factors. If not, the variation in the results under the two assumptions is not statistically explainable and the only plausible explanation may lie in the fact that the combined effect of the two factors are not separable which we are trying to isolate and hence absurdity in the result.  In that case, the contribution of irrigation on increase in food grain production is to be taken as the contribution of increase in food  grain production in irrigated area.  The Planning Commission has also taken contribution of irrigation in food grain production as the percentage of food grain production in the irrigated area.

DETAILS OF PRCEDURE/DATA USED

13.       The contribution of irrigation on increase in food grain production has been worked out for the periods 1950-51 to 1993-94, 1950-51 to 1997-98 and 1950-51 to 2001-02.  The year 1993-94 has been chosen for comparability of results with World Commission on Dams' sponsored study, the year 1997-98 has been chosen as the final data is available up to that year only.  The data for the year 2001-02 taken is, however, provisional figures as projected by the Ministry of Agriculture.

14.       The official estimates of total food grain production in the country is available  combined for rainfed and irrigated areas only.

15.       The break up of the food grain production for rainfed and irrigated areas is not available.  The estimated productivity for these two areas are also not separately available at all India level.  The break up of the total area under food grain is, however, available separately for rainfed and irrigated areas.

16.              The crop cutting experiments carried out by the States and the National Sample Survey Organisation, however, provide information on yield both for irrigated and rainfed (un irrigated) areas for various principal crops and these details are available for 1968-69 and subsequent years state wise.  The state wise information on gross irrigated and gross sown area are also separately available for rainfed and irrigated areas for principal food grain crops.

17.       The estimated yield rates for food grains crops at all India level have been worked out as weighted average of State wise yield rates available for principal crops with gross sown area as weights for the years 1969-70, 1974-75, 1979-80, 1988-89, 1993-94 and 1997-98.

18.       By trend analysis, the yield rate of food grain production at all India level for rainfed and irrigated area have been worked out for the years 1950-51 and 2001-02.  It has not been possible to work out the yield rate direct for these two years as the crop cutting experiment data for these years is not available.

19.       The estimated production in rainfed and irrigated areas were worked out under the existing scenario viz. actual observed productivity increase in rainfed and irrigated areas as well as hypothetical cases of no increase in productivity (Assumption I ) and no increase in irrigated area (Assumption II) and thereafter corresponding increase in food grain production in two areas were worked out for the periods 1950-51 to 1993-94, 1950-51 to 1997-98 and 1950-51 to 2001-02.

20.       Finally, the estimated contributions of productivity and irrigation on increase in food grain production were worked out as in paras (10 & 11) under Assunption I & II.

21.       The details of the results are enclosed (Annexures I, II & III).

ANALYSIS OF THE FINDINGS/RESULTS

22.              Logically as also mentioned above, the estimated contribution of the two factors viz productivity and irrigation on increase in food grain production worked out differently under Assumption I and II as above and worked out independently by the World Commission on Dams' sponsored study should be the same. The results, however, reveal a significant variation in the estimated contribution.  The results are summarized below:

23.       This observed variation is difficult to be explained. The only plausible explanation may be in the fact that the combined effects of the two factors are not separable and rather they are supplementary to each other and hence absurdity in the results. It is thus apparent that the combined effect of the two factors are not separable and hence the contribution of irrigation on increase in food grain production is to be taken as the contribution of  increase in food grain production in irrigated area.

24.       We had 50.80 MT production of food grain in the country in 1950-51, 184.26 MT in 1993-94, 192.26 MT in 1997-98 and 212.03 MT production in 2001– 02. The corresponding estimated production in irrigated area were 17.59 MT in 1950-51, 114.98 MT in 1993-94, 122.31 MT in 1997-98 and 143.06 MT production in 2001-02.  The production of food grain in irrigated area has thus registered an increase of 97.39 MT during 1950-51 to 1993-94, an increase of 104.72 MT during 1950-51 to 1997-98 and an increase of 125.47 MT during 1950-51 to 2001-02 as against the corresponding increase of 132.71 MT, 141.24 MT and 160.49 MT respectively during these periods in irrigated and rainfed areas combined.  Hence, taking the contribution of irrigation in increase in food grain production as the contribution of increase in food grain production in irrigated area, the contribution of irrigation on increase in food production worked out to 73.4% during 1950-51 to 1993-94, 74.1% during 1950-51 to 1997-98 and 78.2% during 1950-51 to 2001-02.

25.       The assured water for irrigation to the farmers is being ensured through various water resources development projects, Major & Medium Irrigation projects and Minor Irrigation Schemes. The Major & Medium irrigation projects in particular involve huge public investment and also result in large scale displacement of the people from the project site who have to be suitably rehabilitated and resettled which again requires substantial expenditure.  Some of the critics have even termed the displacement unethical. As per the analysis of the World Commission on Dams' sponsored study, the Major & Medium Irrigation Projects have contributed a meager about 10% only to the increase in food grain production and irrigation as a whole combined i.e. Major, Medium and Minor to about 30% only during the period 1950-51 to 1993-94.

26.       According to our analysis the picture is not as grim as being projected by the World Commission on Dams' sponsored study.  Having worked out contribution of irrigation as a whole (Major, Medium and Minor combined), we have also worked out estimated contribution of Major & Medium irrigation projects on increase in food grain production. As per the latest available data, the Major & Medium irrigation projects accounted for 35.93%, 37.48% and 38.30% (estimated) for the years 1993-94, 1997-98 and 2001-02 respectively of the total utilised potential in the country.  At that rate the contribution of major & medium irrigation projects in the increase in food grain production works out to be 26.4% during 1950-51 to 1993-94, 27.8% during 1950-51 to 1997-98 and 29.9% during 1950-51 to 2001-02.

27.       It has also to be appreciated that the role of major & medium irrigation projects is not restricted to ensure assured water supply for irrigation alone. It has additionally also provided protection against flood and drought, ensured supply of water in remote areas, generation of hydro power for industrial and domestic uses, development   of tourism etc. The contribution of these factors have not been worked and are beyond the scope of this paper. In any case, however, all these factors have to be kept in view and analysed for taking any rational view in the matter.

CONCLUSION

28.       The production is a joint effect of the productivity inputs like fertilizers, pesticides and improved HYV seeds on one hand and assured water supply ensured by irrigation facilities on the other hand.  The contribution of these two factors are not separable.  The productivity inputs and irrigation are supplementary to each other and in the absence of either of the two, the optimum production level is not achievable.

29.       The irrigation (Major, Medium and Minor combined) has contributed for 73.4% of the increase in food grain production during the period 1950-51 to 1993-94, 74.1% of the increase in food grain production during the period 1950-51 to 1997-98 and 78.2% of the increase in food grain production during the period 1950-51 to 2001-02.

30.       The large dams (Major & Medium irrigation projects) have contributed for 26.4% of the increase in food grain production during the period 1950-51 to 1993-94 which has increased to 27.8% during the period 1950-51 to 1997-98 and 29.9% during the period 1950-51 to 2001-02.

31.       There is a consistent increase in the contribution of irrigation on increase in food grain production during the period 1993-94 to 2001-02.

References

1.   Sengupta Nirmal, Working Paper prepared for the World Commission on Dams, June, 2000.

2.   Ninth Five year Plan 1997-2002-Volume II – Thematic issues and  sectoral programme, Planning Commission, Government of India.