Indian consumer communication market to grow at CAGR of 2.6 percent

By siliconindia   |   Tuesday, 28 July 2009, 17:12 IST   |    1 Comments
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Indian consumer communication market to grow at CAGR of 2.6 percent
Bangalore: The Indian consumer communication market is proposed to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.6 percent by 2013, states the information technology research firm Gartner in its report "Forecast: Consumer Fixed Voice, Internet and Broadband Services, Asia/Pacific and Japan, 2007-2013". During the period, the revenues will also grow from $4.39 billion in 2008 to $4.45 billion in 2013. The communication market includes consumer voice service revenue, consumer broadband access revenue and total consumer internet access revenue. The consumer fixed line subscriber base will remain at 37 million connections by 2013, while the broadband subscriber base is expected to increase by a CAGR of 26 percent to reach 16 million subscribers during the same period. "The Indian fixed-line market will see growth from broadband and internet access sectors, which will together grow at the rate of 22 percent to reach $1.1 billion by 2013. The broadband sector will see strong growth, as increased focus will be put on building the last mile access. The voice market will contract through 2013 as the number of consumer fixed lines will continue to fall slightly, mostly because pressure from mobile substitution will persist," said Neha Gupta, Senior Research Analyst, Gartner. Although the revenues from voice services will generate highest income amongst the fixed line services in the country, its contribution will fall down from 91 percent in 2008 to 77 percent in 2013. The number of fixed lines are expected to be on a decline till 2012, but will pick up again in 2013 as carriers will focus more on fixed broadband, packing voice lines free with it. The connection and calling revenue is estimated to be on a slow decline till 2013. Also, migration to Voice over Broadband (VoBB) will pick up, but it will remain very low. Broadband services are expected to grow strongly from 2008 to 2013. The revenues will have a significant contribution in the overall growth of fixed line services in India, with a CAGR of 25 percent. Broadband will overtake dial up as the primary access technology by the end of 2012. The study also predicts a significant drop in broadband Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) as penetration to semi-urban and rural areas increase. In comparison to other Asian countries, broadband household penetration rate will remain low at six percent in 2013. Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) continues to dominate the Indian market, as the connections accounted for more than 86 percent of all the broadband connections in 2008 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25 percent by 2013. DSL's domination will continue till the end of 2013. Demand for high speed broadband and bandwidth- heavy internet applications will result in the operators rolling out FTTx/Ethernet aggressively after 2012. Wireless broadband services will also grow significantly by 2010, expanding broadband to the areas which are not covered by copper telephone lines.