India to spend $35 B on military aviation by 2030

Monday, 12 February 2007, 18:30 IST
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BANGALORE: India will be spending a massive $35 billion on military aviation over the next 20-25 years for the simple reason that most of the existing aircraft need replacement sooner or later - and there is also a requirement for more aircraft with newer technology. According to a study done by the authors of this article and published in the latest issue of the India Strategic defence magazine, except for the SU-30MKI, all the fighter and transport aircraft of the Indian Air Force (IAF), be it the MiG-21, 23, 25, 27 and 29, or Jaguars or Mirage 2000, or IL-76 heavy transport and AN-32 medium transports, were contracted for acquisition during the time Indira Gandhi or her son Rajiv Gandhi was prime minister. The study says that the same is also true for the helicopter Mi-17 and its older Mi-8 version. The IAF chief, Air Chief Marshal S P Tyagi, released the magazine at the Aero India air show here. As for transport aircraft, the only exception was for VVIP travel, with four Embraers acquired from Brazil in 2005. Additionally, three new generation Boeing 737s, configured to the same security standards as the Air Force One of the US President, are now on order while some new Embraers are being considered for a surveillance role. The situation is no different for the Indian Navy, whose existing aircraft, including those vital for maritime reconnaissance like the Il-38 and Dorniers, are old. The navy needs not only more aircraft but also technologically advanced newer aircraft - and in greater numbers. The navy has projected a figure of about 100 aircraft in the next 15-20 years, particularly the MiG-29Ks, whose number should go up to about 50 from less than the 20 initially contracted. These jets will be deployed on the aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya the navy is acquiring from Russia. Indications are that the Indian Army has a projection for about 500 helicopters. It is already finalising purchase of 197 helicopters from a choice of two. Field and other trials for these have been completed and an announcement is expected by mid-2007. Notably, most of the helicopters in India are also more than 20 years old. The fact is that after Rajiv Gandhi, there was a paralysis in the acquisition process triggered by the spate of inquiries that illogically blocked even the normal process of replacing outdated equipment. This was a costly mistake, as the country now has to suddenly spend rather too much. During the 1999 Kargil war for instance, the army neither had adequate munitions for the Bofors howitzers, which saved the day, nor any Weapon Locating Radars (WLRs) to detect the source of hostile fire for counter action. The result: the army suffered 80 percent of its casualties in the war to Pakistani artillery. As for aircraft, it is amply known that the strength of the IAF's combat squadrons has been coming down as the existing aircraft are old, and there is a limit to the extension that can be given to any machine's life. Fortunately, IAF has acquired the formidable SU-30MKI, each of which carries three strategic missiles. India should have more than 200 of these aircraft, with HAL asked to produce 8 to 12 jets a year over the next decade. Their indigenous production has already begun. But there is still a wide gap between the acquisition and the phase-out, and there is no alternative to numbers. The government had sanctioned 45 combat squadrons for the IAF at one time, but not more than 39.5 were actually inducted. According to published reports, India has about 800 combat jets. Of these, nearly 600 are various MiG variants and the rest Jaguars and Mirage 2000s. The IAF is retaining only about one-third of some 300 MiG-21s, while the MiG-23s and MiG-27s are on their way out. The MiG-25, a beautiful machine that could fly at thrice the speed of sound for intrusive reconnaissance missions, was phased out last year. The MiG-29s, Mirage 2000s and Jaguars need upgradation and discussions are on appropriately. It has to be kept in mind that every year, a force like the IAF loses nearly two squadrons as the total technical life (TTL) of some of the aircraft is over. There are also accidents. Each squadron is supposed to have two additional aircraft so that appropriate strength is maintained when some machines go for routine maintenance and service. That is, an IAF squadron should have 16+2 aircraft. In a war, which can erupt suddenly as it generally happens, each squadron must also have at least 75 per cent serviceability for a minimum two weeks. But this can only happen if the planned and required squadron strength is there, with appropriate aircraft in reserve. As for the transporters, the IAF acquired the IL-76 and the AN-32 from the mid-1980s. They are being given life extension but the time to plan for their replacement is NOW. It may be recalled that it took the IAF 10 years to get its first DC-3 Dakotas and Fairchild Packets, and 20 years for the Hawk Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT), whose delivery begins from September this year. India is looking for 126 Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA), the biggest order in the 21st century yet. As the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) would be available not before another five years' delay, this order could go up to 200. On an average, an MRCA would cost about $50 million with or without training costs, missiles and sensors. This order accordingly could touch nearly $10 billion. The value of various Indian contracts with Russia for military aviation, including for SU-30MKIs, helicopters, development of new transporters, more refuellers and AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) platforms should also reach that figure. On Thursday, the air chief announced the acquisition of 40 new SU-30 MKIs as an interim step to arrest the decline in crucial numbers. The IAF has already decided to go in for 80 Russian Mi-17 IV helicopters as a follow on order but it would need to buy some more helicopters to replace its existing fleet of nearly 150 machines. IAF also needs heavy lift and high altitude strike helicopters. The IAF is also seeking an increase in the number of AWACS and flight refuellers, to double their strength from three to six for the former, and from six to 12 for the latter. The navy is acquiring newer warships, including at least two aircraft carriers over the next decade and possibly, a couple of nuclear submarines. To protect them, it needs longer reach that only armed maritime reconnaissance aircraft, helicopters and missiles can provide. Considering all these factors, it is easy to realize that India will be spending a staggering amount on newer aircraft and related systems.
Source: IANS