India expects 8.1 percent GDP growth in 2003-04

Tuesday, 10 February 2004, 20:30 IST
Printer Print Email Email
NEW DELHI: Keeping up its recent growth pattern, India is likely see its gross domestic product (GDP) surging to 8.1 percent in 2003-04 fiscal ending March 31, as against four percent in the previous fiscal. The high growth is expected mainly on account of a tremendous boost in agriculture and services sector, the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) stated Monday. "The growth rate of 8.1 percent in GDP during 2003-04 has mainly been due to the growth rates of over five percent in agriculture, forestry and fishing; manufacturing; electricity, gas and water supply; construction; trade, hotels, transport and communication; financing, insurance, real estate and business services; and community, social and personal services," the CSO stated. Agriculture, which includes forestry and fishing, "is likely to show a steep increase of 9.1 percent during 2003-04, mainly due to the increase in production of agricultural crops", the CSO stated. During the previous fiscal due to a failed monsoon, India's agriculture had recorded a minus growth of three percent. The estimated growth in GDP for the trade, hotels, transport and communication sector during 2003-04 is placed at 10.9 percent, mainly on account of a growth of 8.0 percent in the gross trading index, 5.5 percent in net tonne kilometres of Railways and 3.7 percent in passenger kilometres of Railways, 7.5 percent in cargo handled at major ports, 31.4 percent in the production of commercial vehicles, and 35.0 percent in the outstanding telephone connections, during April-December, 2003-04. In the financing sector, which includes insurance, real estate and business services, a growth rate of 6.4 percent is expected in 2003-04 on account of 11.6 percent growth in aggregate deposits and 12.3 percent growth in bank credit during December 2002 to December 2003, the CSO data showed. Similarly, the growth rate of community, social and personal services during 2003-04 is estimated to be 5.9 percent. In the case of industry, according to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), barring manufacturing, which recorded a higher 6.8 percent growth in April-November over 5.6 percent in the corresponding period last year, the growth in mining sector showed 3.9 percent growth as against 5.8 percent in the same period last year while in electricity the growth was 3.1 percent as compared to 4.0 percent in the same period in the previous year. The construction sector is expected to show a growth rate of six percent during 2003-04, mainly on account of 5.6 percent growth in production of cement and 7.1 percent in steel during April-December 2003-04, as against the growth rates of 9.7 percent in cement and 9.1 percent in steel in the corresponding period last year. The CSO report states that the net national product (NNP) at factor cost, also known as national income, at 1993-94 prices is likely to be Rs 12.53 trillion during 2003-04, as against the previous year's quick estimate of 11.57 trillion. In terms of growth rates, the national income is expected to rise by 8.4 percent during 2003-04 in comparison to the growth rate of 3.5 percent in 2002-03. The per capita income in real terms (at 1993-94 prices) during 2003-04 is likely to reach 11,684 as compared to the quick estimate for the 2002-03 fiscal of 10,964. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 6.6 percent during 2003-04, as against the previous year's estimate of 1.8 percent.
Source: IANS