Bangalore: A decline in population growth is likely to be registered in the BRIC nations, according to BRICs Monthly, published by Goldman Sachs Global Economies, Commodities and Strategy Research. The report also stated how an ageing population in the BRIC nations will significantly affect growth.

The report states how growth in population will slow down in the BRIC nations in the next couple of decades. Also, the group of middle-aged people will dominate the majority of employees in workplaces. With proper policies in place, this will prove to be beneficial to Brazil, India and China, as this will generate a bigger percentage of working-age people. Russia’s ‘Demographic Window’ of opportunity, however, has ceased to exist. India, however, will continue to witness an increase in population growth in the coming years.

The age framework of BRIC nations is moving towards a mature population in the coming decades. This ‘Demographic Transition’ can be attributed to a sharp drop in mortality rates and a moderate decrease in fertility rates, forming a temporary ‘bulge’ in population, resulting in an enlarged group of working people. This working class will positively affect the economy by adding to employee number and savings. This is termed as the ‘Demographic Window,’ which will help Brazil, India and China. These nations, especially India, can utilize full advantage of this opportunity by improving upon their current policies pertaining to Growth Environment Score (GES).

According to population projections of United Nations, India will become the Most Populous country in the world by 2021, thus, surpassing China in this regard. Also, India will be the only nation among the BRIC countries to maintain a good percentage of the world population engaged in trade. While Russia and China will witness a large dip in world population, Brazil will only undergo a small decrease.

According to statistics given by BRICs Monthly, the Median Age in the BRIC countries will increase from 32 to 45 by 2060. This increase in very large when compared to developed nations of the world, which will be only 40 to 44 years of age. This ‘Demographic Transition’ is due to decreasing mortality and fertility rates, evident mostly in Brazil, India and China.

Increase in middle-aged people in workplaces will benefit the economies in the following ways – more work and more savings from it and lesser amount of money spent on education and health insurance. This is because people belonging to different age groups behave differently, with middle-aged people stressing more on savings.

India is expected to enter this opportunity period this year, while Brazil and China are already there. India must take advantage of this period by having sufficient savings vehicles and stable domestic financial markets. Also, the government should have programmes like – Pension Arrangements, to prepare the aging for their coming years. India, currently, does not have a strong GES, which helps in measuring social, political and economic stability that affect growth. India must be cautious in fixing this drawback because Brazil and China already have a good GES. On the other hand, Russia’s fluctuating GES indicates a weak economy.

The Main Economic Forecasts for India are as follows: a 7.8 percent Real GDP Growth (year-on-year) and an inflation rate (year-on-year) of 5.1 percent in 2012.