Calculating the costs of India-Pakistan standoff

Tuesday, 17 June 2003, 19:30 IST
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KATHMANDU: The confrontation between India and Pakistan from December 2001 to October 2002 cost the two nuclear-armed neighbours billions. And, for the South Asian region, the cost was substantially more. This was the opinion of analysts from both countries who attended a conference on the "Cost of Confrontation 2002" here hosted by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, a private, non-profit educational organisation. Sundeep Waslekar of the Mumbai-based International Institute for Peace Initiatives estimated that in the wake of the attack on the Indian Parliament on December 13, 2001, "Operation Parakram", the mobilisation of nearly 700,000 troops by India along the border with Pakistan and full readiness for war, cost the nation $1.8 billion, or 0.45 percent of the gross domestic product. Roads and property worth around $50 million were damaged, while on the Pakistan side the damage to such infrastructure was negligible. However, troop mobilisation cost Pakistan, which had amassed 300,000 soldiers, $1.2 billion or 1.87 percent of its GDP. India lost 1,874 soldiers, according to Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes' statement in Parliament. Similar statistics were not available from Pakistan. However, the damage was much more on both sides in terms of policy and political costs. India was unable to put an end to cross-border terrorism and the long standoff, according to Waslekar, had a negative effect on troops morale. For Pakistan, the policy costs included dilution of its policy focus and relative neglect of the Afghan front as well as a feeling of uncertainty arising out of Indian brinkmanship. Tourism in both countries was affected by the travel advisories issued by foreign missions asking citizens to stay away from the region. Politically, Waslekar said, the standoff saw the strengthening of Narendra Modi, the Gujarat chief minister whose government had witnessed communal violence that claimed 1,000 lives. Pakistan too paid a political price with the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) religious alliance emerging as the third major force in the Pakistan National Assembly and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf consolidating his powers. India had to pay a heavy price where terrorism was concerned with at least seven major attacks killing many, including civilians -- ranging from a strike on the Indian Army camp at Kaluchak in May 2002 to the murder of Hurriyat Conference leader Abdul Ghani Lone in Jammu and Kashmir, the attack on the Akshardham temple in Gandhinagar and the attack on a paramilitary camp in Srinagar in November. Pakistan too was not spared of terrorist activities, with increased attacks on foreigners within the country and increased mobility of terror groups like Al Qaida. It also saw the strengthening of the Lashker-e-Taiba's grip on its society, a partnership between religious parties and extremist groups in the 2002 poll and Islamisation of the North West Frontier Province. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema of Islamabad Policy Research Institute said the confrontation caused diplomatic fallout in the entire region, also affecting the progress of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). "Not only the postponement of the summit became the order of the day but work in other areas also lost pace," he said. "The advent of the forces on the borders took a very heavy toll on Track II efforts... people to people contact with planned seminars relating to India-Pakistan relations were cancelled." The real victim of India's "coercive diplomacy" was peace in South Asia, he added, and the confrontation between the two neighbours with "professed commonalities" affected their image.
Source: IANS